Does Viktor Yuschenko now want a Czechoslovakia style split up of his country? What would be the next logical step for an ideology after beating all records for the worst incumbent electoral showing (a jaw decreasing 5% of the vote)? The past month demonstrated that Somebody as ideologically inflexible and stubborn against all odds or appeals to end human suffering (notice Ukraine & # 39; second) desperite he & # 39; d rather bored down the house if it would not be governed by his idealized notions of what Western reform means. Depression in just 2 decades due to Yuschenko 's damn the torpedoes insistence on Bush style market reforms) does not go into the night easily. But more on that in a moment.
Hillary Clinton 's hysterical ghost seems to have taken over Yulia Tymoshenko in the last few weeks. Tymoshenko has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Yanukovych who was wise enough to not fall for her bait. There is now evidence to believe a kitchen sink equivalent will now be thrown if her opponent wins. Yuluko has planned her own desire for electoral fraud (her people briefly controlled a plot printing plant before being removed by a judge) on Yanukovych to such a degree that a lot of her supporters now expect her to challenge the results regardless of the loss margin.
Unlike Tymoshenko, Hillary Clinton was not one of the richest oligarchs in the country (Yulia made powerful wealth in energy industry during Kuchma & # 39; s era) or already holding a powerful political position that could have been used to destabilize the country in a case Ukrainians are too demoralized to stage a second Maidan but that wont stop Yulia (Hillary 's damage was heavily contained within the democratic party). Such mass protests in Western provinces are in troubling in that they could not spiral out of of past and have me twice in the past again. control and result in retreat of Kiev 's power. Since many in the Western pro - Yuschenko provinces only view her as a less evil (Tymoshenko just learned Ukrainian language in 2000 to be able to thrive in politics), it is also possible she may lose control over her own creation if she sets it in motion.
European Union and United States intelligence services should be careful in how much they are crank the Victoria of rememberably calm in the face of preemptive provocations. Proaganda levels in support of Tymoshenko in Europe next year with its plate with Greece and Spain. Washington DC & # 39; s intelligence has still not reclaimed from humiliation in Georgia and Iran in recent years. A European country of over 40 million people that is in the middle of a severe depression and that is more ethnically / ever before it is not the same toy to play with as it was in 2004. Of course we can not expect British media to not try to to stir world opinion against Russia even if EU / US propaganda machines do not go into the same high gear as with Iran last summer or with Ukraine in last presidential elections.
Preemptive attempts at destabilization have not been limited to Tumoshenko. Yuschenko may want to split the country now that dream is dead (bringing Ukraine into EU to ever create a tangible "new Europe" block along with still prometheist Poland and the Baltic states to begin to wrestle power away from Germany / France within the proportionally shown EU parliament):
1) Actually proposed success in the past when his duties were compatible with area of his knowledge (aping of Baltic economic shock therapy rather than governing)
2) Tasted actual popularity and the thrill of insurgent politics (the fact that Western intelligence services backed him financially and in the info war real does not have to melt in being the figure head of an event triumphant alliance)
3) Appears rather emotionally callous and unempathic even for a politician (he knew fully well that a huge multi-ethnic federal country with an artificial and unconsolidated nationality will not respond to economic shock therapy as well as a small relatively homogeneous country like Lithuania)
4) Tasted not only actual political power but the international support of the United States leadership along with briefly becoming a propaganda darling in deeply ideological Western media (who manages to turn into the country into Potemkin villages at times)
Considering that Ukrainians have now been living in Weimar republic style economic and political difficulties ever since Soviet collapse (to make a former inflammatory and Nazi-collaborator decision) Instruct, Yuschenko has publicly equated Soviet Union & # 39; s rule with Nazi rule and glorified a secessionist hero at a time when western Ukrainian provinces see a spike in Popularity of hyper nationalist and often gleefully such as Ukrainian Union - Svoboda party and crypto fascists that are readily to be within the ruling coalition such as Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists.
[note: One must not use words like these lightly. The nationalism advocated by the fringe factions within the decaying corpse of the orange revolution is the primordial tribe rooted nationalism we saw in early 20th century Germany. This can be contrasted with the types of nationalisms (or perhaps more accurately supranationalisms) seen in USA, Russia, India, or China that specifically emphasize a type of Lingua Franca melting pot unity for all regardless of racial or linguistic background. The primordial type stems from relatively recent acquisition of a nation state following a long period of weakness and political fragmentation of linguistically homogeneous people. Best examples of course are the experiences of Italian, German, and Polish people in 1850-1950 periods who emphasized the unity of tongue for their new nations and a retroactively glorified semi-artificial past. Racial purity is not even a factor for recently unified people who lived on plains other than well defended mountain heights.]
Considering that many ethnic groups in India / China / Russia effectively skipped the previous period, the more appropriate argument In this case, the experience of Ukraine qualitatively differs from experience of successful language based secessionists in the Baltic states and yet aspiring secessionist groups like Kurds. The separation of Ukrainian party bosses from Soviet Union in early 1990s was most certainly not the type of violent mono-linguistic secessionism Bandera engaged in. Besides their acceptance of 2 languages and active participation of many Ukrainian Russian speakers, it can effectively be argued that the separation was a reactionary mov e by regional savings to be less effected by liberalizing influences from Moscow. Periphery regions like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Texas, and Alaska tend to have a decade or two behind the socioeconomic developments of the older federal capitals. , urbanization, perestroika when they arrived in Ukraine after their arrival in Russia. As Texas is showing us, there is also lag in resistance from political leadership who gain from preservation of the older order. Separatism is one form of such resistance and party bosses of Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan used it effectively. Linguistic purity of their region was the farthest thing from their minds and was just used as a cynical political tool.
Kiev today is that Moscow in 1990. Orange revolution was dead on arrival the way Medvedev would have been he magically replaced Putin in 2000 (and as foreigner brought proportional representation in Iraq after toppling of Saddam Hussein & # 39; s government). A strongman Tymoshenko perhaps has more than just her ego at stake in this election since she has more thank you so much more. than enough skeletons in her closet (her dealings within the energy industry following post-Soviet privatizations) for new government to dig up and bring before the courts if needed.
